Let's assume the business is dependent on five market factors materializing and each independent variable has a 50% chance of occurring - the odds of failure are then 1-(.5^5), or 96.875%. Not good. The odds of start-up success are already daunting; making the odds even more daunting by attempting to execute a plan overly dependent on external variables is a recipe for frustration.
What do I mean? Well, if a business plan requires
- distribution deals to reach the end-market (ex. wireless carriers)
- deployment of new networks, infrastructure, and network devices (ex. wimax, rfid readers)
- new device proliferation (ex. Windows Mobile only)
- new technology (broadband over powerline)